Monthly Archives: April 2013

Real Madrid – Borussia Dormund Preview

The only possible narrative going into this game is: Are Real Madrid capable of winning 3-0 or 4-1 (or 5-1, or 6-1...)?

Certainly they are. Imagine something like this: an early defensive mistake, let's just randomly say a misplayed Mats Hummels backpass, leads to a Madrid goal. Dortmund, shaken, let Madrid dominate for ten minutes, during which time Madrid gets a second. Imagine there are 70 minutes left to play. Would you say Real Madrid--a team with the attacking firepower of Cristiano Ronaldo, Mesut Özil, Angel Di Maria, et al., are incapable of scoring one or two more?

That it's possible doesn't mean it's likely, however. I don't expect Real Madrid to look quite as toothless as they did in the away leg. But with a 4-1 advantage, Dortmund don't have to be amazing to win the tie. They just have to be okay. And they're much, much better than okay.

I'm hoping for an entertaining match. Let Real get a goal relatively early and not stupidly give one up. Let there be something to play for. Either that, or let Real make a couple of stupid defensive mistakes early (I'm looking at you, Sergio Ramos) so that I can shrug my shoulders, call it over, and go do something else with my afternoon.

Wigan 2 – Tottenham 2: Of Course

I'm hardly the first person to note that there's something kind of nutty about rooting for a team (as opposed to rooting for a person). Today this guy is your star player and you love him, you cheer every time he touches the ball, you buy a shirt with his name on it. Next month he plays for another team and you hate him, you boo every time he touches the ball, he's a goddamn traitor. So in a sense you are rooting for clothing. That's crazy.

And that whole notion that the guy who leaves your team to go get more money or playing time or better coaching somewhere else is doing something wrong: in no other sphere of life would we look askance at someone who took a better job when one was offered. Would you hate a banker who left Citigroup for a bigger paycheck at Goldman Sachs? The correct answer is yes. But that's because bankers are awful people; the job change is immaterial. Sports stars don't bring down entire economies and throw millions of people out of work when they fuck up, but from the way we act when they put on a different team's shirt, you'd think it was the other way around.

Now, of course I recognize that rooting for your team is more complicated than what I just said. The shirts are symbols, obviously, and the whole "us vs. them" thing is essentially tribal and (ask me on a day when I'm feeling optimistic about humankind) maybe even atavistic. But when you are truly a fan, who you root for speaks to issues of identity and self-narrative. Do you root for a team because they play where you live? Because the team stands for a certain philosophy of play (e.g. in American football, how the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens are known for their defenses)? Maybe your fandom started because you just like their uniforms. Whatever it is: all these things do say something about you.

Now, the place where the crazy really starts to shine is when you start to use tribal memory to filter events in the real world. But I also propose that this behavior is at the heart of true fandom. If your team is seen as constantly embattled (e.g. the Chicago Cubs), you will see events through that filter. "Of course Steve Bartman interfered with the ball and ruined everything. Of course he did."

So it is with me and Tottenham Hotspur. It started my first year rooting for the club, 2005-06. Going into the final game of the season, sitting in fourth place, one point above archrival Arsenal, ten Spurs players came down with what was believed to be food poisoning. They lost to not-very-good West Ham and ended up fifth and outside the Champions League.

(Indeed, I'd initially suspected that the food poisoning was intentional, a clever-yet-hideous ploy by some die-hard Arsenal fan. I never heard anything confirming my suspicions. I figured that sort of thing would be talked about a great deal if, you know, it had actually happened, so I decided the incident was just freak bad luck--but why did so many players have to eat the same food? But to give you an idea how deep the cultural narrative can run, it wasn't until just now when I did a little research on the incident that I learned that it wasn't food poisoning at all but a norovirus. That part of the story doesn't fit the narrative, so it isn't mentioned.)

With all that in mind, here's how I felt about this weekend's salient matches:
1) After getting a gift goal off a horrible mistake by the defense and goalkeeper, of course Spurs immediately gave the goal back.

2) Of course they found themselves down 2-1.

3) Of course the guy who scored Wigan's second goal, Callum McManaman, scored his first ever Premier League goal, after having failed to score in 22 prior appearances. Of course his first goal came against Spurs.

4) Of course Spurs can only get the equalizer off what had to be the scrappiest own-goal of all time.

5) Of course Arsenal take the lead off a Theo Walcott goal in which he was clearly offside.
(I'd like to thank Robin van Persie for taking advantage of a Bacary Sagna mistake and forcing the penalty kick. I'd like to thank ManU for at least getting a draw. But of course I'm mostly ignoring this aspect of the match. It doesn't fit the narrative.)

6) Of course Chelsea comfortably handle their business with a 2-0 win over Swansea.

7) Of course Spurs collapse again at the end of the season and look like they're gonna fail to make the Champions League. Of course this is what's happening.

All of this is crazy. But of course I think this way. I'm a fan.

Thoughts on This Weekend’s Premier League

Let me first of all be very clear about something: when it comes to Tottenham Hotspur, I am the furthest thing from objective. I discovered, sometime in the latter part of the '05-'06 season, that I had fallen in love with the club; I have enjoyed and suffered, in relatively equal portions, ever since.

So you'll please forgive that I can only talk about the Prem from the perspective of a totally besotted fan. I can speak objectively about the other leagues, but my main perspective on the Prem is, "How are Tottenham doing?"

So when I look ahead to this weekend's fixtures, I see only three matches that matter: Spurs @ Wigan, ManU @ Arsenal, and Swansea @ Chelsea. Yes, I understand that I'm supposed to care about Aston Villa vs. Sunderland, as a win for Villa would really help move them away from the drop zone, but really, for me, it's all about the battle for third and fourth place and those coveted Champions League spots.

Arsenal-ManU on Sunday would normally be the weekend's glamour fixture, but after ManU's demolishing of Villa on Monday to claim the Prem title with four games to spare, I have to assume that ManU will field a side composed of 16-year-olds from the reserve squad and players still hungover from Monday's celebrations. Assuming Spurs manage to win at 18th-place Wigan, which they must, the edge has to go to a desperately-needing-the-win Arsenal over a ManU with literally nothing to play for. It's likely to be worth watching for entertainment purposes, as a ManU with nothing to either win or lose will (I hope) go out and play their best attacking football, at least within the limitations I mentioned above.

Wigan-Spurs will be interesting, if only because there's so much at stake. Of the three teams in the bottom three (Wigan, QPR and Reading), only Wigan realistically have a chance of escaping, and so for them a home win is crucial. Spurs currently sit 5th in the table, and if they fail to get to a Champions League spot this season, we'll almost certainly see Gareth Bale follow in Luka Modric's footsteps and head out the door.

Of course the question regarding Spurs is: Which team will show up, the one we've mostly seen since they threw away a lead at Liverpool on March 10th, or the team that played the last half-hour against Manchester City last weekend? As a Spurs fan who's been burned many times before, I'm reluctant to take too much away from last weekend's final half-hour. Spurs looked dreadful for the first hour, and while it's true that they certainly shifted up a couple of gears, they did so against a team with little left to play for in the Prem: City sit five points clear of Arsenal (with a game in hand), six ahead of Chelsea and seven ahead of Spurs. Barring a complete collapse--and they have too much talent on hand for that to happen, don't they?--they'll be in the Champions League again next year.

I'm certainly not gonna watch Chelsea-Swansea--two matches per weekend is usually my limit--but I'll sure be rooting hard for 9th-place Swansea to steal at least a point from the match. Chelsea currently sit one point ahead of Spurs in the table, and every slip-up they make brings me joy.

Lewandowski 4 – Real Madrid 1

I thought of this headline Wednesday at what I have to imagine was the same time as probably at least 10 million other people around the world.

And while Lewandowski was brilliant--none of his three non-penalty goals were simple--I don't think giving Lewandowski all the credit really begins to explain just what Dortmund did to Real Madrid.

It's true, Lewandsowski's three goals from open play demonstrate clearly that Real's centerbacks were overwhelmed in dealing with him. It's easy enough to heap criticism on them, but Lewandowski has 23 goals in 27 games in the Bundesliga this season and had six in the Champions League before Wednesday. He's at the top of his form, and I can think of few if any centerback pairings that could hold him in check.

But in attack Lewandowski operates as a pure striker, which means that he primarily does his work in the box. To excel in this role requires an extremely deft touch, supreme quickness and otherworldly reaction times. This suggests a couple of things:

  1. At 24-years-old, he's probably at or very near his career peak. Quickness peaks early and is one of the first attributes to decline. (From that perspective, Dortmund should probably be considering cashing in.)
  2. He is highly dependent on the quality of service he receives. Clearly he can pounce on half-chances, as he did for both the second and third goals Wednesday, but to do so, someone needs to first //get// those chances. And it was there that Dortmund really shone.

The attacking midfield three, Marco Reus, Mario Götze, and Jakub Blaszczykowski, left the other four Real defenders completely at sea. Götze's cross from the left for the first goal was impeccable and clearly untroubled by Sergio Ramos' attempt at defending. But it was what Reus, Götze and Blaszczykowski did to Xabi Alonso and Sami Khedira that was most amazing. There was a shot of Alonso and Khedira sometime in the second half in which both of them had their mouths open, presumably panting, with a look of near-panic in their eyes. Reus', Götze's and Blaszczykowski's motion through the midfield, along with the attacking support provided by Sven Bender and, especially, Ilkay Gündogan, left Khedira and Alonso totally overwhelmed. By dominating that portion of the midfield, Dortmund were able to completely dominate the match.

What's most remarkable is that, until Wednesday, I probably would have said that Alonso and Khedira were the top defensive midfield pairing of any team playing the 4-2-3-1 that's become so popular since the 2010 World Cup. After Wednesday, I'm not so sure. It's possible that the torch has been passed either to Bender and Gündogan or Bastian Schweinsteiger and Javi Martínez. It's also possible that currently no midfield in the world that can stop the attacking brilliance on display from Dortmund Wednesday and Bayern Munich the day before. We'll know if that's the case, assuming we end up with a Munich-Dortmund final, if the score is something like 5-4. And if that's the case, then we have, also, seen the beginning of the end of the 4-2-3-1, because someone out there right now has set his mind to figuring out how to solve the problem that Jose Mourinho, supposedly one of the greatest tactical minds in modern soccer, so totally failed to solve in Dortmund on Wednesday.

Bayern Munich 4 – Barcelona 0: Is It Over?

So is it over?

Probably. Let's be honest. Even under the best of circumstances, Barça play one style, that of possession and attack, and being down 0-4 means they don't have time to play it safe. Bayern forcefully demonstrated yesterday that they are more than capable of leveraging counterattacks into both direct threats on goal and forcing set pieces [and then taking advantage of those set pieces]. It seems unlikely that Bayern won't score in the leg at the Camp Nou, and then Barça would have to score six. Not likely.

But is it possible to imagine 4-0? Barça did it to AC Milan in the Round of 16, and in that same round Bayern took a 1-3 win at Arsenal back home and lost 0-2, a score that certainly indicated a mental letdown on their part, so we know they're capable of such a thing. Let down against Barcelona, even a three-quarter-strength Barcelona like we saw yesterday, and you'll be picking the ball out of your net many times.

I wouldn't bet money on it, however. Bayern are too strong and Barcelona are simply suffering more from too many injuries.

And speaking of: I can understand the pressure on a coach to field his best player, even at less than 100%. But what I cannot understand is the choice to stick by that decision once it has proved to not be working. I think back to the playoff game between the Washington R******* and Seattle Seahawks. Remember how RGIII reinjured his knee early in the game and became totally ineffectual? Yet Mike Shanahan left him in until he really got hurt.

Tito Vilanova and Barcelona were fortunate that Messi didn't suffer a similar fate, but nevertheless, Messi was clearly way off his best yesterday. He lacked the mobility to make the off-the-ball runs he usually does that are so effective in moving the defense around, and with the ball at his feet he didn't have the thrust that usually forces the defense into the panicked adjustments that open up opportunities for other players. With Messi so far from his best, Barça were playing with closer to ten men than eleven. I could see it. Martin Tyler and Tony Gale could see it. Certainly Tito Vilanova could see it. So why not make the substitution?

I feel like the answer given would be, "Well, he's my best player." But not at 90% he's not. In fact, I think a top player at 90% is worse than a healthy player who operates at the level of 90% of the top player, because a player sense the game from the perspective of the peak of his abilities. It's impossible to adapt to being substantially less than your best. It just leaves the player feeling something like confused: "Why can't I do what I normally can?"

One wonders what Messi might have done off the bench, just as he did against PSG two weeks ago. Against a defense already worn down by chasing Barcelona's possession for 60 or 65 minutes, Messi with fresh legs might have been a spark.

But Vilanova took a risk and it didn't pay off at all. Barcelona now face a nearly impossible task.

The Obvious Talking Point

It's the obvious talking point ahead of today's match, but one has to wonder just how much the news that Mario Götze is heading to Bayern during the summer will affect the team. There's no way around it, it's just got to be a distraction. If the fans turn against him, it could get ugly. But one has to hope that Dortmund will be able to tune out the distraction, that Götze will be at his playmaking best, and that together they will bring the entertaining attacking play we've come to expect.

But yo, whattup with the famous German discipline?

What Happened Yesterday: The Short Version

I woke up this morning trying to get a better handle on what transpired in yesterday's Bayern-Barcelona match. A 4-0 scoreline demonstrates that Bayern dominated, but with Barcelona still maintaining the bulk of possession, how do you describe how Bayern dominated?

Sometimes what's crucial is what you didn't see. In this case, it was shots by Barcelona. They had 65% of the ball possession, but only four shots during the game. Bayern, in contrast, had 15. That is domination.

Oh-So-Tantalizing: Champion’s League Semifinals Preview

This year's Champion's League knockout rounds have been amazing, the best in years, and tomorrow's and Wednesday's semi's could hardly be more enticing: Tuesday's match between Barcelona and Bayern Munich features the runaway leaders of the two best leagues in Europe. Wednesday brings us Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid, both second in their respective leagues and, based on their play in the Champion's League thus far, the most likely candidates for Europe's 3rd- and 4th-best teams.

While there was really no way the draw could have failed to create juicy match-ups for the semi-finals, I'm pleased that we avoided Bayern-Dortmund and Barca-Real. We still have the possibility of an all-Spanish or all-German final, and we've been spared the prospect of Barca-Real over two legs--I can't be the only one out there who's feeling a substantial case of Superclásico Fatigue. And while one could reasonably prefer Barca-Dortmund and Bayern-Real, to keep alive the prospect of the two best teams in Europe playing in the final, with the matchups as they are we get the two best teams playing over two legs (which smooths out the impact of luck) and a replay of the Real-Dortmund group-stage matches, which went advantage Dortmund: a 2-1 win at home, followed by a 2-2 draw at the Bernabeu.

The second legs of the quarterfinals could hardly have served better to whet the appetite for the semi's. Bayern's 4-0 aggregate victory over Juventus, the top team in Italy, made it clear that Italian soccer is regrouping, but still has a way to go to catch up to Spain and Germany. Real took a 3-0 lead into Turkey, seemed to put the tie to bed with an early Cristiano Ronaldo goal, then took a siesta themselves during the second half, allowing three goals in 15 minutes, thereby making things much harder on themselves than they needed to, which to be fair is the Real Madrid way. A 2-2 draw in Paris against PSG gave Barca the advantage going into the home leg after, but they were substantially outplayed for the first hour of the match and were honestly lucky to be only down 0-1 at that point. But in the 62nd minute, they replaced an ineffective Cesc Fabregas with a not-fully-fit Lionel Messi, a substitution that totally changed the match. It can be easy to forget just how good Messi actually is, but Barcelona became a completely different side when he came in, dominated the last half-hour, and took the 3-3 aggregate tie on away goals.

Lastly, Dortmund found themselves needing to score two goals without conceding another after an 82nd minute goal by Eliseu made it 1-2, a goal in which he was clearly, obviously offsides. (You might as well watch the whole video of the match highlights here. I could link to videos that just show the problematic plays, but then you'd miss Joaquin's amazing touch for the first goal and Marco Reus' ridiculous pass to Lewandowski for the second.) Marco Reus' goal in the 91st minute time gave Dortmund a heartbeat, however faint, and then, incredibly, they scored the winner two minutes later at the death, a thrilling finish sullied substantially by the fact that Dortmund were twice offsides on the play: Julian Shieber, who headed it down, was offsides when the initial free kick was taken, and then Felipe Santana was clearly, obviously offsides when he scored the goal.

After Europol's recent report on match-fixing in soccer (read about it here and Brian Phillips' either hysterical or deadly accurate reaction on Grantland here),
it's hard not to wonder if the fix was in when you see calls at this level missed as badly as these. Given that the report said that matches have been fixed at the very highest levels of the game, is it crazy to imagine that a gambling ring would have the audacity to try such a thing. To pull it off would require them to be able to get a signal to not one but both linesmen during the game. But what better way to deflect attention than to fix the match on both sides?

Even the best case--that we saw mere incompetence rather than conspiracy--taints what was otherwise a thrilling finish, but from the neutral's perspective, the preferred side won, as Dortmund's swashbuckling attacking play might rival Barcelona's as the most beautiful in Europe.

Every obsessive soccer fan in America is taking tomorrow and Wednesday afternoon off from work so as to watch the games live. You should too.