You can see the peril of posting something like my last post. I called it not a prediction, but more like a vision. I said that Bastien Schweinsteiger would be the difference-maker in the Champions League final, as a karmic gift from the soccer gods following his heartbreak of the year before.

And I was wrong.

Schweinsteiger certainly played an able match, but the best player on the field on Saturday (perhaps excepting both keepers) was Arjen Robben.

Thus we see the difficulty of interpreting visions.

But perhaps my error wasn't in my essential hypothesis. Rather it was seeing this:

as Bastien Schweinsteiger shattered. But perhaps I misinterpreted. That look wasn't "shattered." That look was "How do I not kill Arjen Robben for missing the game-winning penalty before extra time, so I wouldn't have had to be in a goddamn penalty shootout in the first place?"

So perhaps the soccer gods doubly bestowed their grace: Robben received redemption, and Schweinsteiger was given reason to forgive.

Robben was simply and uncontroversially excellent. Consider his game-winning goal: He scored not by cutting inside from the right with the ball at his feet but by picking up a pass straight down the middle. He skipped over challenges instead of falling down in a heap. Cutting inside from the right and diving on contact: I and many others see that as Robben's essential skill-set. (For example, see point four here.) The goal was in some sense so un-Robben-like that you could see it as divinely inspired and ordained.

Overall, it was a beautifully well-played, exciting match. Dortmund had the best of the early part of the match by pressing high and not giving Bayern time or space to get into their flow. Both keepers were excellent--it was amazing that the score remained 0-0 as long as it did. Dortmund fought hard, but after halftime, Bayern adjusted and the question of the second half became, "Can Dortmund prevent the Bayern juggernaut from destroying them?" The answer turned out to be: No, but perhaps with an asterisk.

The main talking point in my own brain over the last few days has been, "Should Dante have seen red for the the foul on Marco Reus that led to the PK?" The talking heads in my brain can see it from all sides. If this had been a normal league match, he gets at least a second yellow--perhaps even a straight red--and is sent off. After all, he did kick Reus in the stomach. You'd be hard-pressed to say a booking wasn't deserved.

On the other hand, referees frequently are reluctant to send a player off in cup matches, especially finals. Remember this?

That happened in the 28th minute of the World Cup final. In any other match, that's a straight red: cleats up into Xabi Alonso's chest. But what was Howard Webb to do? A red card there changes the game completely.

Nicola Rizzoli faced the same choice on Saturday. Every choice (except not calling the foul) had its merits. Had it been outside the box, it would have been a second yellow, without question. That the foul happened inside the box gave Rizzoli some flexibility. It's not the first time I've seen a referee not give a booking when the foul results in a penalty. Award a penalty kick and let the player stay on the pitch: it struck him as a good balance. I'm sure there are thousands of Dortmund fans who are upset about it. I totally see their point. But I see Rizzoli's as well.

Maybe think of it this way: after two losses in the final in the previous three years, the soccer gods simply decided it was Bayern's turn to win.

I fell asleep in front of the TV a few nights back and awoke around 3am, just as Fox Soccer was about to show a replay of the penalty shootout from last year's Champions League final. For whatever reason, I often have very poor recall of sporting events past, and last year's Champions League final was no different. It's not like I didn't watch every minute of it as it happened, but all I remembered was that Chelsea won. The specifics of the shootout had escaped me.

Of course, I have no problem remembering the narrative around the match. It was a bit of a surprise that have Bayern Munich and Chelsea in the final in the first place--they were considered the 3rd and (distant) 4th best teams in the semis. But remember that Barça couldn't break down Chelsea's defense in the leg at the Camp Nou, despite John Terry having been sent off for driving a knee into Alexis Sanchez's thigh. In the other semi, Fabio Coentrão made a mistake in the first leg to give Philip Lahm a late cross that Mario Gomez bundled in, a goal that Real Madrid rued when the second leg finished 2-1 as well and Real lost on penalties, with Ronaldo, Kaka and Sergio Ramos all failing to convert.

Bayern were considered the big favorites going into the final. After all, the final was being played in the Allianz Arena, Bayern's home stadium. Meanwhile, notwithstanding a major resurgence under Roberto Di Matteo after the disaster that had been AVB's reign, Chelsea had appeared all season like a team past their prime, and many of us kept waiting for the Champions League match in which they'd finally be found out.

It looked like maybe it had happened when Ashley Cole left Thomas Müller too much space on the far post and Müller was able to head home Tony Kroos' cross. But then five minutes later, Didier Drogba equalized with a powerful header on Chelsea's first corner of the match. Chelsea's luck seemed to run out when Drogba brought down Ribery in the box during stoppage time, but Arjen Robben's penalty was poorly placed and Cech was able to make the save. Extra time came and went, and the game went to penalties.

If you don't remember the penalty shootout, it's worth watching again. Even in replay I found it incredibly tense. Bayern shot first. Philip Lahm went to Cech's right, but Cech couldn't get enough on it to keep it out. Then Juan Mata fired to Manuel Neuer's left, but his placement lacked confidence, and Neuer easily saved. From here, all Bayern had to do was not miss and the title was theirs. Mario Gomez and Neuer himself scored for Bayern; David Luiz and Frank Lampard scored for Chelsea. But for Bayern's fourth, Cech got a hand on Ivica Olic's shot, and Ashley Cole equalized.

Bastian Schweinsteiger shot fifth. You can imagine how bad he wanted it: he's played on Bayern Munich for his whole career, since his debut in 2002 at the age of 18. He played for the side that lost to Mourinho's Inter in the final in 2010. Bayern Munich is his home.

He stepped up and drove the ball hard and low to his right. Cech dove and maybe just got the barest touch. Still, it looked perfect--until it hit the post and deflected back out. One centimeter to the left and it bounces into the goal, but it wasn't to be. He pulled his shirt over his head and held his face in his hands.

Then--of course--Didier Drogba stepped up. He fired to Neuer's right, Neuer dove to his left, and it was over. It was the last kick of Drogba's Chelsea career, and probably the most important. Abramovich finally had his Champions League title. The Chelsea players ran around in mad celebration.

Schweinsteiger fell to his knees, totally shattered.

It's now a year later. Bayern go into today's match against Borussia Dortmund as heavy favorites, both because of what they did to Barcelona in the semis and that they won the Bundesliga by an astonishing twenty-five points. Dortmund are expected to be without their best player, playmaker Mario Götze.

Predictions in advance of matches are entertaining, but kind of silly. Yes, Bayern are the heavy favorites, but soccer is so low-scoring that a single early mistake can change the entire tenor of the match. As they say, "that's why they play the game."

I understand all that, so don't call this a prediction. I clawed my way out of deep sleep to watch a late-night reply of the end of last year's match, and I watched Schweinsteiger shatter, and it felt like a vision: Schweinsteiger, rebuilt, will be the difference. This is his year. No one on the field wants it more, and the gods won't deny him again.

What I just said is every bit as silly as the most rationally-based prediction. But given how painful those dark hours of the night can be--and I bet that Schweinsteiger had more than a few in the aftermath of that penalty miss--I think it is somehow better to believe those glimmers of light we see, the ones that pull us out of heavy dreams.

I'll be rooting for him.

Yes, it's been weeks, but I wasn't going to not comment on the Barcelona-Bayern 2nd leg. There was just too much that was interesting about it.

1. Arjen Robben's goal in the 49th minute.
(Watch a weirdly letterboxed version here or the clips below, which sadly both start close to when Robben received the ball, and so don't clearly show Alaba's pass.)

[Technical difficulties are preventing the upload of those clips for now. I hope to have this squared away soon.]

First of all, consider just what an amazing pass David Alaba actually made: from the left touchline, just inside Bayern's defensive half, diagonally across the field and in behind the defense. Alaba turns 21 on June 24th. On that day, hoist a beer for the best left back in the world. He's that good.

What I found especially interesting about the goal, beside that it was awesome, was Ian Wright's commentary about it. He kept repeating just how bad Adriano's defense was on the play. But I didn't really agree, and still don't. I've watched the clip many times. The flaw Bayern exploited wasn't simply Adriano's, and the solution to it isn't simple.

First of all, let's do away with the notion that Adriano had simply made a mistake by letting Robben get onto his left foot. Watch Adriano's position as he moves to close Robben down. Robben is closer to the endline than Adriano is and is moving directly toward goal. It's not like Adriano simply forgot that Robben likes to pull the ball back inside and shoot the exact left-footed curler he did here. Adriano simply has to close Robben quickly. If he overplays Robben to prevent Robben's inside run, then Robben continues at pace directly toward goal with the defense completely behind the play. Adriano can neither allow that to happen nor allow a simple right-footed cross across the six-yard box, which even the profoundly one-footed Robben is capable of.

Robben knows that Adriano has to close him down quickly, cutting off the direct route to goal, and so uses that fact against him: he waits until Adriano has nearly regained proper positioning but is still moving at pace, and then switches to the inside run, at which point Adriano's momentum carries him out of position. Note also that Robben is moving away from the goal as he does this. If the problem is simply Adriano's defense, what would you suggest he do better?

The answer, for what it's worth, is that Adriano initially needs to be closer to Robben as Robben receives the ball, in order to be able to set himself into a proper defensive position with his balance properly squared. But this solution comes with its own problems. A change in Adriano's positioning demands shifts in Barcelona's entire defense. For example, if Adriano plays closer to the endline, preventing a pass like Alaba's from going in behind him, then the entire defense has to play that much deeper. But a deeper back line gives Bayern's dangerous midfield more room to work. Alternately, Adriano could play more out to Robben's side of the field, but then the backline has to stretch their positioning to fill the space as best as possible. However, this creates larger channels for the offense to attack into. And let's say again where the Alaba was when he sent his pass to Robben: against the left touchline, just inside his own half. I propose that if you position your defense to prevent a 60-yard crossfield diagonal pass from the left back, you are creating untenable tactical problems for your defense.

What I'm getting at is that, given Barcelona's approach to defense, the play was nearly indefensible. Barcelona's defense is predicated on high pressure and a high backline, so as to squeeze the space the attacking team has to work in. Against that kind of position, the combination we saw on the play--an astonishingly accurate diagonal ball from midfield in behind the defense, being run onto by a very fast player who is a danger both to break toward goal or to pull the ball inside--created a situation that Barcelona was always going to struggle to handle. In many ways, their best bet was to hope Robben simply wasted his shot, which he has done throughout his career with substantial frequency.

(Against a defense that doesn't play an offside trap and instead tries to get both it's defenders and midfield behind the ball, the situation is totally different. Then Robben can be easily doubleteamed in this sort of situation. But that's not how Barcelona play.)

2. How little Barcelona actually troubled Bayern's defense. On some level, I can hardly believe I just wrote that. Barcelona not troubling a defense? Is that even possible?

What it points to is that Barcelona currently have a big hole in their squad. As long as Messi was on the field and fit, it was possible to ignore the problem. After all, Barça have run away with La Liga this year, so far scoring an astonishing 109 goals in 36 games. Of those 109, Messi has 46 (and another eight in the Champions League)--over 42% of Barcelona's total goals. With that kind of success, you might not worry that your next-highest scorer (Fabregas) has only ten in the league.

But once the obvious 42% of their scoring disappeared--and make no mistake, he was absent in the first leg as well, notwithstanding being on the pitch--it became clear just how much of the remaining 58% Messi also accounts for. Go back and watch his goals against AC Milan in the return leg at the Camp Nou. In both cases, how does he find the space to get the shot away? The only answer that makes sense is that Messi films the world at a higher frame rate than we do--than anyone does--and when his brain processes that visual information down to a standard 24-frames-a-second, everything happens in super-slow-motion. Holes that none of the rest of us ever see appear obvious to him.

That means he can score even when you collapse an extra defender or two or three against him. We've all see him do it, and it's amazing. But the other thing he can do, once he's pulled two or three or four defenders over to him, is to pass the ball on to a teammate, who finds himself terribly open and basically unable to not score.

Without Messi on the pitch, what was there to move Bayern's defense around and create opportunities for the rest of the team? The 7-0 aggregate scoreline gives you all the answer you need.

There's nothing particularly insightful about saying, "Take the best player in the world away from his team and notice that they aren't nearly as good." It's true, there's no replacing Messi. But there was an interesting tell in Bayern's defensive positioning that might point to what Barcelona is lacking. I kept noticing that when Barça were in possession, Bayern's back four were sitting comfortably ten or fifteen yards--sometimes more--in front of their own penalty box. Barcelona's obsessive possession-based attacking style is all about relentless probing the defense, looking for exploitable pockets of space. But here Bayern were dictating the space Barça had to work in.

Now, you only do this kind of defensive tactic at the professional level if you are comfortable that your defense is fast enough to recover when a ball is played in behind them; clearly this was true of Bayern on the day. As I watched, it became more and more clear not that Barça were missing Messi, which is obvious, since he's irreplaceable, but that they were missing pace in general. Villa and Fabregas and Alexis Sanchez are all gifted goal scorers, but how many of them remind you of Samuel Eto'o in his prime? How many terrify a defense with their blazing speed?

And what strikes me as especially interesting about this observation is that you don't need a particularly amazing player to make it work. Find someone who is really really fast and is capable of scoring when he gets one-on-one against the keeper. He can essentially be completely one-dimensional. As soon as you have this type of player, the defense has to position themselves deeper to keep him from getting behind them. Moving the defense backward creates space for the rest of the team, and that's all Barcelona need to win games. Xavi and Iniesta may be past their peaks--we'll see--but they are still capable of scoring and creating goals when they get the space they need.

3. How good Pique was. It's a minor point, given how things turned out, but as I wrote in my notes after Pique broke up a Bayern 4-on-3 in the 25th minute: He's single-handedly kept Barça in this so far."

Keep in mind also that his girlfriend is Shakira.

4. This was a passing of the torch. Or perhaps not. I'm reluctant to read too much into it. Yeah, Bayern dominated over the two legs. But would you say unequivocally that Barça end up dominated if they're able to field a fully fit Lionel Messi? It's true that an overreliance on a single player is a weakness, but one that says Barcelona's days in the sun are over? I think not.

Next season will be very interesting indeed.

It's funny how soccer sometimes works. In the first 15 minutes of the match, Real had three great chances to score. Higuain received a pass from Özil in the 4th minute but took two touches before getting his shot away, giving Weidenfeller time to close the angle. In the 13th minute, Angel Di Maria hit a streaking Cristiano Ronaldo with an amazing long ball behind the defense; Ronaldo took it on his chest and then fired it straight at Weidenfeller. Not an easy shot by any stretch, but you get so accustomed to Cristiano Ronaldo scoring goals exactly like that. And then in the 15th minute an Higuaín flick put Özil through on goal, but he pulled his near-post shot wide.

If Real scores on two of those three opportunities--and on another day, they would have--then it's a very different game the rest of the way. Up 2-0 with 75 minutes to play, you'd be hard pressed to bet against them closing the gap and going on to win.

Similarly, in the first leg, it seemed Lewandowski couldn't help but score. In the second, he had four solid chances: the one in the 13th minute that he hit straight at Diego López, and then three in the second half, two of which he missed badly and the other he put off the underside of the bar. A Lewandowski in first leg's form scores at least two of those and puts the tie to bed; in the return leg he can't manage it.

And so the score remained 0-0 until the match was nearly over.
Then, somehow, in the 82nd, Benzema scored from close range, a goal that was more difficult than it probably appeared, and then Ramos gave Real a second in the 88th, and suddenly it was 2-0 with two minutes left in regulation and an expected four or five minutes of stoppage time. Suddenly the game became a subset of the game of soccer, a situation that occurs only at the end of two-legged cup ties: with so little time remaining, there will be no draw. Either Real scores and they win, or they do not and they lose. All of the possible scenarios narrow down to just this: Real will do everything to try to score, Dortmund will do everything to stop them.

It was a thrilling finale, but Real came up short. For the third year in a row they exit the Champions League in the semi-finals. Mourinho looks to be leaving the club this off-season. He was brought in to win the Champions League and failed. My question: is the fault Real Madrid's, or his?

The only possible narrative going into this game is: Are Real Madrid capable of winning 3-0 or 4-1 (or 5-1, or 6-1...)?

Certainly they are. Imagine something like this: an early defensive mistake, let's just randomly say a misplayed Mats Hummels backpass, leads to a Madrid goal. Dortmund, shaken, let Madrid dominate for ten minutes, during which time Madrid gets a second. Imagine there are 70 minutes left to play. Would you say Real Madrid--a team with the attacking firepower of Cristiano Ronaldo, Mesut Özil, Angel Di Maria, et al., are incapable of scoring one or two more?

That it's possible doesn't mean it's likely, however. I don't expect Real Madrid to look quite as toothless as they did in the away leg. But with a 4-1 advantage, Dortmund don't have to be amazing to win the tie. They just have to be okay. And they're much, much better than okay.

I'm hoping for an entertaining match. Let Real get a goal relatively early and not stupidly give one up. Let there be something to play for. Either that, or let Real make a couple of stupid defensive mistakes early (I'm looking at you, Sergio Ramos) so that I can shrug my shoulders, call it over, and go do something else with my afternoon.

I thought of this headline Wednesday at what I have to imagine was the same time as probably at least 10 million other people around the world.

And while Lewandowski was brilliant--none of his three non-penalty goals were simple--I don't think giving Lewandowski all the credit really begins to explain just what Dortmund did to Real Madrid.

It's true, Lewandsowski's three goals from open play demonstrate clearly that Real's centerbacks were overwhelmed in dealing with him. It's easy enough to heap criticism on them, but Lewandowski has 23 goals in 27 games in the Bundesliga this season and had six in the Champions League before Wednesday. He's at the top of his form, and I can think of few if any centerback pairings that could hold him in check.

But in attack Lewandowski operates as a pure striker, which means that he primarily does his work in the box. To excel in this role requires an extremely deft touch, supreme quickness and otherworldly reaction times. This suggests a couple of things:

1. At 24-years-old, he's probably at or very near his career peak. Quickness peaks early and is one of the first attributes to decline. (From that perspective, Dortmund should probably be considering cashing in.)
2. He is highly dependent on the quality of service he receives. Clearly he can pounce on half-chances, as he did for both the second and third goals Wednesday, but to do so, someone needs to first //get// those chances. And it was there that Dortmund really shone.

The attacking midfield three, Marco Reus, Mario Götze, and Jakub Blaszczykowski, left the other four Real defenders completely at sea. Götze's cross from the left for the first goal was impeccable and clearly untroubled by Sergio Ramos' attempt at defending. But it was what Reus, Götze and Blaszczykowski did to Xabi Alonso and Sami Khedira that was most amazing. There was a shot of Alonso and Khedira sometime in the second half in which both of them had their mouths open, presumably panting, with a look of near-panic in their eyes. Reus', Götze's and Blaszczykowski's motion through the midfield, along with the attacking support provided by Sven Bender and, especially, Ilkay Gündogan, left Khedira and Alonso totally overwhelmed. By dominating that portion of the midfield, Dortmund were able to completely dominate the match.

What's most remarkable is that, until Wednesday, I probably would have said that Alonso and Khedira were the top defensive midfield pairing of any team playing the 4-2-3-1 that's become so popular since the 2010 World Cup. After Wednesday, I'm not so sure. It's possible that the torch has been passed either to Bender and Gündogan or Bastian Schweinsteiger and Javi Martínez. It's also possible that currently no midfield in the world that can stop the attacking brilliance on display from Dortmund Wednesday and Bayern Munich the day before. We'll know if that's the case, assuming we end up with a Munich-Dortmund final, if the score is something like 5-4. And if that's the case, then we have, also, seen the beginning of the end of the 4-2-3-1, because someone out there right now has set his mind to figuring out how to solve the problem that Jose Mourinho, supposedly one of the greatest tactical minds in modern soccer, so totally failed to solve in Dortmund on Wednesday.

So is it over?

Probably. Let's be honest. Even under the best of circumstances, Barça play one style, that of possession and attack, and being down 0-4 means they don't have time to play it safe. Bayern forcefully demonstrated yesterday that they are more than capable of leveraging counterattacks into both direct threats on goal and forcing set pieces [and then taking advantage of those set pieces]. It seems unlikely that Bayern won't score in the leg at the Camp Nou, and then Barça would have to score six. Not likely.

But is it possible to imagine 4-0? Barça did it to AC Milan in the Round of 16, and in that same round Bayern took a 1-3 win at Arsenal back home and lost 0-2, a score that certainly indicated a mental letdown on their part, so we know they're capable of such a thing. Let down against Barcelona, even a three-quarter-strength Barcelona like we saw yesterday, and you'll be picking the ball out of your net many times.

I wouldn't bet money on it, however. Bayern are too strong and Barcelona are simply suffering more from too many injuries.

And speaking of: I can understand the pressure on a coach to field his best player, even at less than 100%. But what I cannot understand is the choice to stick by that decision once it has proved to not be working. I think back to the playoff game between the Washington R******* and Seattle Seahawks. Remember how RGIII reinjured his knee early in the game and became totally ineffectual? Yet Mike Shanahan left him in until he really got hurt.