I fell asleep in front of the TV a few nights back and awoke around 3am, just as Fox Soccer was about to show a replay of the penalty shootout from last year’s Champions League final. For whatever reason, I often have very poor recall of sporting events past, and last year’s Champions League final was no different. It’s not like I didn’t watch every minute of it as it happened, but all I remembered was that Chelsea won. The specifics of the shootout had escaped me.

Of course, I have no problem remembering the narrative around the match. It was a bit of a surprise that have Bayern Munich and Chelsea in the final in the first place–they were considered the 3rd and (distant) 4th best teams in the semis. But remember that Barça couldn’t break down Chelsea’s defense in the leg at the Camp Nou, despite John Terry having been sent off for driving a knee into Alexis Sanchez’s thigh. In the other semi, Fabio Coentrão made a mistake in the first leg to give Philip Lahm a late cross that Mario Gomez bundled in, a goal that Real Madrid rued when the second leg finished 2-1 as well and Real lost on penalties, with Ronaldo, Kaka and Sergio Ramos all failing to convert.

Bayern were considered the big favorites going into the final. After all, the final was being played in the Allianz Arena, Bayern’s home stadium. Meanwhile, notwithstanding a major resurgence under Roberto Di Matteo after the disaster that had been AVB’s reign, Chelsea had appeared all season like a team past their prime, and many of us kept waiting for the Champions League match in which they’d finally be found out.

It looked like maybe it had happened when Ashley Cole left Thomas Müller too much space on the far post and Müller was able to head home Tony Kroos’ cross. But then five minutes later, Didier Drogba equalized with a powerful header on Chelsea’s first corner of the match. Chelsea’s luck seemed to run out when Drogba brought down Ribery in the box during stoppage time, but Arjen Robben’s penalty was poorly placed and Cech was able to make the save. Extra time came and went, and the game went to penalties.

If you don’t remember the penalty shootout, it’s worth watching again. Even in replay I found it incredibly tense. Bayern shot first. Philip Lahm went to Cech’s right, but Cech couldn’t get enough on it to keep it out. Then Juan Mata fired to Manuel Neuer’s left, but his placement lacked confidence, and Neuer easily saved. From here, all Bayern had to do was not miss and the title was theirs. Mario Gomez and Neuer himself scored for Bayern; David Luiz and Frank Lampard scored for Chelsea. But for Bayern’s fourth, Cech got a hand on Ivica Olic’s shot, and Ashley Cole equalized.

Bastian Schweinsteiger shot fifth. You can imagine how bad he wanted it: he’s played on Bayern Munich for his whole career, since his debut in 2002 at the age of 18. He played for the side that lost to Mourinho’s Inter in the final in 2010. Bayern Munich is his home.

He stepped up and drove the ball hard and low to his right. Cech dove and maybe just got the barest touch. Still, it looked perfect–until it hit the post and deflected back out. One centimeter to the left and it bounces into the goal, but it wasn’t to be. He pulled his shirt over his head and held his face in his hands.

Then–of course–Didier Drogba stepped up. He fired to Neuer’s right, Neuer dove to his left, and it was over. It was the last kick of Drogba’s Chelsea career, and probably the most important. Abramovich finally had his Champions League title. The Chelsea players ran around in mad celebration.

Schweinsteiger fell to his knees, totally shattered.

It’s now a year later. Bayern go into today’s match against Borussia Dortmund as heavy favorites, both because of what they did to Barcelona in the semis and that they won the Bundesliga by an astonishing twenty-five points. Dortmund are expected to be without their best player, playmaker Mario Götze.

Predictions in advance of matches are entertaining, but kind of silly. Yes, Bayern are the heavy favorites, but soccer is so low-scoring that a single early mistake can change the entire tenor of the match. As they say, “that’s why they play the game.”

I understand all that, so don’t call this a prediction. I clawed my way out of deep sleep to watch a late-night reply of the end of last year’s match, and I watched Schweinsteiger shatter, and it felt like a vision: Schweinsteiger, rebuilt, will be the difference. This is his year. No one on the field wants it more, and the gods won’t deny him again.

What I just said is every bit as silly as the most rationally-based prediction. But given how painful those dark hours of the night can be–and I bet that Schweinsteiger had more than a few in the aftermath of that penalty miss–I think it is somehow better to believe those glimmers of light we see, the ones that pull us out of heavy dreams.

I’ll be rooting for him.