So is it over?
Probably. Let’s be honest. Even under the best of circumstances, Barça play one style, that of possession and attack, and being down 0-4 means they don’t have time to play it safe. Bayern forcefully demonstrated yesterday that they are more than capable of leveraging counterattacks into both direct threats on goal and forcing set pieces [and then taking advantage of those set pieces]. It seems unlikely that Bayern won’t score in the leg at the Camp Nou, and then Barça would have to score six. Not likely.
But is it possible to imagine 4-0? Barça did it to AC Milan in the Round of 16, and in that same round Bayern took a 1-3 win at Arsenal back home and lost 0-2, a score that certainly indicated a mental letdown on their part, so we know they’re capable of such a thing. Let down against Barcelona, even a three-quarter-strength Barcelona like we saw yesterday, and you’ll be picking the ball out of your net many times.
I wouldn’t bet money on it, however. Bayern are too strong and Barcelona are simply suffering more from too many injuries.
And speaking of: I can understand the pressure on a coach to field his best player, even at less than 100%. But what I cannot understand is the choice to stick by that decision once it has proved to not be working. I think back to the playoff game between the Washington R******* and Seattle Seahawks. Remember how RGIII reinjured his knee early in the game and became totally ineffectual? Yet Mike Shanahan left him in until he really got hurt.
Tito Vilanova and Barcelona were fortunate that Messi didn’t suffer a similar fate, but nevertheless, Messi was clearly way off his best yesterday. He lacked the mobility to make the off-the-ball runs he usually does that are so effective in moving the defense around, and with the ball at his feet he didn’t have the thrust that usually forces the defense into the panicked adjustments that open up opportunities for other players. With Messi so far from his best, Barça were playing with closer to ten men than eleven. I could see it. Martin Tyler and Tony Gale could see it. Certainly Tito Vilanova could see it. So why not make the substitution?
I feel like the answer given would be, “Well, he’s my best player.” But not at 90% he’s not. In fact, I think a top player at 90% is worse than a healthy player who operates at the level of 90% of the top player, because a player sense the game from the perspective of the peak of his abilities. It’s impossible to adapt to being substantially less than your best. It just leaves the player feeling something like confused: “Why can’t I do what I normally can?”
One wonders what Messi might have done off the bench, just as he did against PSG two weeks ago. Against a defense already worn down by chasing Barcelona’s possession for 60 or 65 minutes, Messi with fresh legs might have been a spark.
But Vilanova took a risk and it didn’t pay off at all. Barcelona now face a nearly impossible task.